Sunday, March 17, 2013

The Dilemma

The Columbus Blue Jackets have found lightning in a bottle the last couple weeks in the form of Sergei Bobrovsky in net.  The goalie is on some kind of ridiculous tear.  He put up his second career shutout against Phoenix.  The CBJ remain just a few points out of the playoffs, creating a hot debate among fans in the 614.  Should the Jackets continue to ride goalie Bob and take a shot at a  playoff run, or "tank it" for a top draft pick?  We'll tackle it here.

Eric: The recent ten-game point streak has been nice, and has given fans some excitement for the short-term future.  Unfortunately, it's not what the Jackets need as a franchise at this point.  Remember the playoff run of a few years ago?  The team got in as a seven seed, but GM Scott Howson set the team back as they struggled to build on their foundation, ultimately leading to three futile seasons and terrible contract signings to try to strike quickly again (see: James Wisniewski's deal).

The franchise drafted a future superstar in the 2012 Entry Draft in Ryan Murray, who is still out recovering from shoulder surgery.  He was the second overall pick, and many experts had him pegged as the number one overall prospect.  With three first round picks in the 2013 Draft, Columbus has a great opportunity to pick up one or two more future superstars (three would be too good to be true for Jackets fans).  That is how it's done in the NHL.  Franchises are mainly built through the draft.  Teams looking to rebuild usually have to get a top three or four pick to get their superstars as well.  It's how Pittsburgh did it, drafting Fleury, Crosby, Malkin, and Staal.  Chicago drafted Kane and Toews in the top three in back-to-back drafts, and added their top defensemen (Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook) in the first round just a few years prior to that.  Edmonton is attempting to go the same route, although success has not yet come for the Oilers.

For a franchise known for its futility, the Jackets have never won the top overall pick in a draft.  The odds have not been in their favor.  Unfortunately, they have too often finished between 20th and 25th overall, missing the playoffs but not getting a top-three pick.  They have found ways to draft between 6th and 10th overall, and missed on quite a few of those picks.  The 2013 Draft is loaded with top-end talent, and a pick in the top three would almost assure them of a star.

The team badly needs better scoring from their forwards.  Ryan Johansen, drafted fourth overall in 2010, has shown signs of being a franchise center for the future.  Other than that, the team is filled with decent third and fourth-line forwards.  The Jackets just do not have the forward talent to compete with the defending-champion L.A. Kings, the record-setting Chicago Blackhawks, or new division foes like the New York Rangers (hello, Nasher), Pittsburgh Penguins, or Philadelphia Flyers.  Bobrovsky can't possibly save every shot.  The Jackets are currently 30th (or last) in the NHL in scoring at 2.1 goals per game.

Here is the good news if you are a fan of tanking it for a top pick.  The team finishes with 12 of their last 17 games on the road, where they have struggled mightily in buildings not located in Detroit.  Also, as good as Bobrovsky has been in net, he cannot possibly continue at his current pace.  If there is any season to finish last, it would be this shortened season.  The fans would not have to live through the misery of an 82-game season.  The short-term glory of barely making the playoffs does not help this franchise become a perennial Stanley Cup contender.  Unfortunately, Jackets fans, we need to lose in regulation quite a bit down the stretch.

Ben:  Ok, Eric.  You have made some valid points.  First of all I need to make a couple of comments:

1.  "You play to win the game".  Herm Edwards

2. "Playoffs?!...You kidding me... I just hope we can win a game".  Jim Mora

That's taken care of.  Now I can move on with my argument.

As much as many of the fans and I would love to have a top-three pick in the next draft, it's a bad idea to purposely set the team up for the scenario.

Here's two reasons you don't tank the rest of the season:

1.  Winning is contagious-  Call it cliche, but there has been plenty of proof throughout the years that proves this to be true.  Let's consider all the players and coaches for the Jackets right now.  It's clear to all of us that they know and believe they're way better than they were at the beginning of the season.  With the 614 hockey swag at a very high point, it would be dumb to let it go.  The Columbus Blue Jackets and their fans are confident and have a serious belief they can compete with anybody, that's not something you let fall to the wayside.

2. The Bandwagon Effect-  Jackets fans like showing up to a game with a busy Nationwide Arena.  Unfortunately, the CBJ don't bring in the largest crowds.  With more wins at the end of the season combined with the lieu of first-round draft picks and some preseason hype, more fans (who weren't previously fans) will show up to games.  This essentially would give the Jackets a better home-ice advantage for the 2013-14 season.

I could go on for hours, but we got a season to finish.

In the end both of us just want a Stanley Cup.  Unfortunately, for now, the Jackets are facing... "The Dilemma".

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