2012 Summary- The Reds went 97-65 last year, winning the NL
Central Division by nine games over the St. Louis Cardinals. In the National League Division Series, the
Reds went up 2-0 on the San Francisco Giants in a best-of-five series before
losing the final three games at home and hitting the golf courses early. Of course, the Giants went on to win their
second World Series in three years, but the taste is still bitter for Reds fans.
Offseason Review: The Reds had one glaring weakness last
season and they filled it this offseason.
They needed a leadoff hitter badly, so they addressed the issue by
dealing Drew Stubbs to the Cleveland Indians for outfielder Shin-Soo Choo. Stubbs had fallen out of favor with Reds fans
because of his poor plate discipline. He
has a ton of talent but was unable to harness it into being a productive player
in Cincinnati. Choo steps in for Cinci, a lifetime
.289 hitter, to set the table for Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and company. For as much success as the
Reds had in 2012, leadoff hitters hit for a combined .208 batting average on
the season. Choo brings some power too,
so his addition to the lineup this year could be huge.
The Infield: Canadian slugger Joey Votto will man first
base, Brandon Phillips will be at second, Zack Cozart will play short stop, Todd
Frazier will be at third and the combination of Ryan Hanigan and Devin
Mesoraco will be catching for the Reds.
Brandon Phillips makes the highlight reel nearly every night, but what
makes him vital to the Reds' lineup is that he gets it done at the plate along with his impressive fielding acumen. Speaking of plate production, Joey Votto is
back and should be healthy to start the season after missing some time last
year with a knee injury. His home-run
totals have dropped from 37 in 2010 to 29 in 2011 to only 14 last year, but
hopefully for Reds fans the injuries are behind him. The one thing that hasn’t declined is his
batting ability. In his 5+ years in the
Major Leagues, he has a lifetime .316 batting average, hitting a career-best
.337 last season. Cozart and Frazier are
a couple of young guys in the left side of the infield who will be counted on
this year to improve upon their 2012 campaigns.
The Outfield: The Reds will go with Shin-Soo Choo in center
field, Jay Bruce in right field and Ryan Ludwick in left field. Choo and Bruce will compete for two things:
who can get the loudest crowd cheer (Bruuuuuuuuuuuuuuce vs. Chooooooooooooooo),
and who has the best arm. Both can be
deadly with their arms gunning down base runners going for an extra bag. In Cleveland, Choo was about a
20-homerun player, but in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, look
for that number to increase to maybe 25-30.
In Jay Bruce’s five career seasons, he has increased his home-run total
every year. Last year he hit 34 bombs,
so can he reach 40? He’ll be 26 on
Opening Day, which should be the beginning of his prime, so 40 homeruns
shouldn’t be out of the question (I don't think that's too much to ask for in the non-steroid era).
The Pitching: The Cincinnati Reds will have one of the best
starting rotations in the NL with Johnny Cueto, Matt Latos, Bronson Arroyo and
Homer Bailey filling the first four spots.
The number five guy is the one that is getting all the attention and
controversy. The Reds have chosen to
move Aroldis Chapman, aka “the Cuban Missile”, from closer to starting
pitcher. Chapman, who recorded 38 saves
last season with a 1.51 ERA will take his 15.9 K/9 (the number of strikeouts a
pitcher would have if you extrapolate his stats out per nine innings) to the starting
rotation. It’s an odd decision to many
to move one of the best closers in the game to a new, unknown role, but that’s
what the Reds have chosen…we’ll see how long that lasts. The bullpen will look to be strong once again
in 2013 after finishing with a MLB-best 2.65 ERA. With Chapman moving to the rotation, the
closer role will be handed to Jonathan Broxton.
Broxton has had some success finishing games for the Dodgers and Royals,
so while he won’t be nearly as dominant as Chapman was, he should be able to
get the job done on most nights.
Upcoming Player to Watch: Billy Hamilton probably won’t make the roster
out of Spring Training, but he may see the field in Cinci later on in the year. He was
drafted as a short stop, but the Reds would like to see him in the outfield to
use his one huge asset: speed. In High
Class-A and AA last year, Hamilton stole 155 bases in 132 games. Let me type that out again. In one season, Billy Hamilton stole 155 (one
hundred and fifty five) bases. That’s an
improvement over his disappointing 2011 campaign when he only had 103 SB on the
year (barely triple digits). There is some question as to
whether he can hit well enough to make it in the big leagues, but he answered
that last year hitting .311 on the year.
Even if he only comes up as a late-game pinch runner later on in the
season, this guy could make an impact on the team. He’s one of the most intriguing
players around, and Reds fans deserve to have the privilege of watching him play at
some point this season.
Three Questions:
1. Will the Aroldis Chapman move work out? You knew this had to be one of the questions. The guy was an absolutely dominant closer last year. A buzz would go through the stadium, home or away, when he entered the game. He could go max-effort for 10-20 pitches and was one of the best at his position in the game. Now the Reds want to put him out there for 100+ pitches every five games to see what he can do. Sure, he has the talent, but when he faces the same guy three or four times a game, can his two-pitch repertoire get it done? There’s no way he’ll be able to have that 100+ mph velocity for 6-7 innings. In my opinion, this is an experiment that’ll last a month or two, maybe five or six starts, then they’ll move him back to the closer role where he belongs (I'm only a blogger though).
1. Will the Aroldis Chapman move work out? You knew this had to be one of the questions. The guy was an absolutely dominant closer last year. A buzz would go through the stadium, home or away, when he entered the game. He could go max-effort for 10-20 pitches and was one of the best at his position in the game. Now the Reds want to put him out there for 100+ pitches every five games to see what he can do. Sure, he has the talent, but when he faces the same guy three or four times a game, can his two-pitch repertoire get it done? There’s no way he’ll be able to have that 100+ mph velocity for 6-7 innings. In my opinion, this is an experiment that’ll last a month or two, maybe five or six starts, then they’ll move him back to the closer role where he belongs (I'm only a blogger though).
2. Can this team put last year behind them? The Reds won the first two games of the NLDS on the road, needing only to win one of the last three games at home. They were unable to get it done. In 2010, the team made the playoffs only to get swept by the Philadelphia Phillies including a Roy Halladay no hitter. 2013 is a new year, and this team is in a great position to make a deep postseason run.
3. Can Joey Votto regain his 2010 form? First of all, I’m not at all saying his last two seasons have been a disappointment. In 2010, Votto hit .324 with 37 homeruns, 113 runs batted in, and 16 stolen bases. If he is fully healthy and can put up similar numbers, Votto will be a M-V-P candidate in 2013. At least Reds fans know that even when he’s not at 100% he can still hit .337.
X-Factor: Devin Mesoraco.
The backup catcher for the Reds is my X-Factor for the 2013 season. He hit .212 with 5 HR last year, and nobody
is talking about him this year. If you
go back to last preseason, though, all the “experts” were hyping him up as an
impact offensive catcher. Baseball America had him ranked as the #16 best prospect entering the 2012 season. Now he’s all but forgotten. Maybe he’s just one of those busts. I’m not saying the Reds will be a failure
without him becoming a productive Major Leaguer, but if he steps up and improves his game, he could become another integral piece in an already potent Reds lineup.
Prediction: The Reds are going to do very well in 2013. As I already mentioned, the Chapman-in-the-rotation experiment won’t work and things will be back to the way they should
be by June. The Cardinals will continue
to be a threat in the NL Central, but the Reds are too good to have less wins than St. Louis. The Reds will win the division, beat the
Cardinals in the NLDS in 4 games, but will lose to the Braves in the National
League Championship Series in 6 games.
It’ll be a successful season, but fans will once again be wondering what
more needs to be done bring another championship to Cincinnati.
Stay tuned for more Reds coverage throughout the season and don't forget to check out Clutch Sports Blog where there will be more previews and analysis from across the majors.
Stay tuned for more Reds coverage throughout the season and don't forget to check out Clutch Sports Blog where there will be more previews and analysis from across the majors.
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