Breaking Down the Columbus Blue Jackets Playoff Odds

The Columbus Blue Jackets have 12 games remaining in the shortened 2013 hockey season.  They are currently in a heated playoff race and are a point out of eighth place.

Before looking at what lies ahead, let's slow down and see how the Jackets got themselves to their current 15-14-7 record.

The Jackets went 2-5-1 in the month of January.  This wasn't too surprising considering Columbus basically cleaned house in the offseason and had a team that hadn't built much chemistry coming into the season.

Columbus went 3-7-2 in the month of February.  Oddly, Jackets fans still felt positive, as the team was competitive all month and never lost a game by more than two goals.

The Jackets turned things around in the month of March. Last month the team went 10-2-4 due to the outstanding play of goalie Sergei Bobrovsky.

Once again, it may sound like a broken record, but Bobrovsky has single-handedly put the Jackets on the radar in the NHL and turned the team into a playoff contender.

Now to the 12 games remaining.  Eight of the remaining games will be on the road, leaving four more home games at nationwide the rest of the season.

Columbus has a home record of 11-4-5 and a road record of 4-10-2 on the season to this point.    

The odds clearly are against Columbus, a young team that has thrived off home-ice advantage.

Head coach Todd Richards will have hands full in the month of April, as the Jackets must play with high expectations from fans for the first time in a while.

March may have come to an end, but if Columbus makes it the playoffs there's no doubt they will be considered the 2013 cinderella of the NHL.

The Columbus Blue Jackets will play their first two games of April this Thursday and Friday with road games against the Nashville Predators and St. Louis Blues.
 
Bobrovski was a star in March.  There's just one question I have for "Bob" this month.  "Can I get an encore?".

The Dilemma

The Columbus Blue Jackets have found lightning in a bottle the last couple weeks in the form of Sergei Bobrovsky in net.  The goalie is on some kind of ridiculous tear.  He put up his second career shutout against Phoenix.  The CBJ remain just a few points out of the playoffs, creating a hot debate among fans in the 614.  Should the Jackets continue to ride goalie Bob and take a shot at a  playoff run, or "tank it" for a top draft pick?  We'll tackle it here.

Eric: The recent ten-game point streak has been nice, and has given fans some excitement for the short-term future.  Unfortunately, it's not what the Jackets need as a franchise at this point.  Remember the playoff run of a few years ago?  The team got in as a seven seed, but GM Scott Howson set the team back as they struggled to build on their foundation, ultimately leading to three futile seasons and terrible contract signings to try to strike quickly again (see: James Wisniewski's deal).

The franchise drafted a future superstar in the 2012 Entry Draft in Ryan Murray, who is still out recovering from shoulder surgery.  He was the second overall pick, and many experts had him pegged as the number one overall prospect.  With three first round picks in the 2013 Draft, Columbus has a great opportunity to pick up one or two more future superstars (three would be too good to be true for Jackets fans).  That is how it's done in the NHL.  Franchises are mainly built through the draft.  Teams looking to rebuild usually have to get a top three or four pick to get their superstars as well.  It's how Pittsburgh did it, drafting Fleury, Crosby, Malkin, and Staal.  Chicago drafted Kane and Toews in the top three in back-to-back drafts, and added their top defensemen (Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook) in the first round just a few years prior to that.  Edmonton is attempting to go the same route, although success has not yet come for the Oilers.

For a franchise known for its futility, the Jackets have never won the top overall pick in a draft.  The odds have not been in their favor.  Unfortunately, they have too often finished between 20th and 25th overall, missing the playoffs but not getting a top-three pick.  They have found ways to draft between 6th and 10th overall, and missed on quite a few of those picks.  The 2013 Draft is loaded with top-end talent, and a pick in the top three would almost assure them of a star.

The team badly needs better scoring from their forwards.  Ryan Johansen, drafted fourth overall in 2010, has shown signs of being a franchise center for the future.  Other than that, the team is filled with decent third and fourth-line forwards.  The Jackets just do not have the forward talent to compete with the defending-champion L.A. Kings, the record-setting Chicago Blackhawks, or new division foes like the New York Rangers (hello, Nasher), Pittsburgh Penguins, or Philadelphia Flyers.  Bobrovsky can't possibly save every shot.  The Jackets are currently 30th (or last) in the NHL in scoring at 2.1 goals per game.

Here is the good news if you are a fan of tanking it for a top pick.  The team finishes with 12 of their last 17 games on the road, where they have struggled mightily in buildings not located in Detroit.  Also, as good as Bobrovsky has been in net, he cannot possibly continue at his current pace.  If there is any season to finish last, it would be this shortened season.  The fans would not have to live through the misery of an 82-game season.  The short-term glory of barely making the playoffs does not help this franchise become a perennial Stanley Cup contender.  Unfortunately, Jackets fans, we need to lose in regulation quite a bit down the stretch.

Ben:  Ok, Eric.  You have made some valid points.  First of all I need to make a couple of comments:

1.  "You play to win the game".  Herm Edwards

2. "Playoffs?!...You kidding me... I just hope we can win a game".  Jim Mora

That's taken care of.  Now I can move on with my argument.

As much as many of the fans and I would love to have a top-three pick in the next draft, it's a bad idea to purposely set the team up for the scenario.

Here's two reasons you don't tank the rest of the season:

1.  Winning is contagious-  Call it cliche, but there has been plenty of proof throughout the years that proves this to be true.  Let's consider all the players and coaches for the Jackets right now.  It's clear to all of us that they know and believe they're way better than they were at the beginning of the season.  With the 614 hockey swag at a very high point, it would be dumb to let it go.  The Columbus Blue Jackets and their fans are confident and have a serious belief they can compete with anybody, that's not something you let fall to the wayside.

2. The Bandwagon Effect-  Jackets fans like showing up to a game with a busy Nationwide Arena.  Unfortunately, the CBJ don't bring in the largest crowds.  With more wins at the end of the season combined with the lieu of first-round draft picks and some preseason hype, more fans (who weren't previously fans) will show up to games.  This essentially would give the Jackets a better home-ice advantage for the 2013-14 season.

I could go on for hours, but we got a season to finish.

In the end both of us just want a Stanley Cup.  Unfortunately, for now, the Jackets are facing... "The Dilemma".

Columbus Outlasts Phoenix to Prolong their Point Streak to 10 Games

The past week it's been the same conversation every day when talking about the Columbus Blue Jackets.  "Did you see Bobrovsky last night?".

Bobrovsky has put the team on his back, stopping 239 of 245 shots in his last eight games played.  

Saturday night Bobrovsky had 39 saves, allowing no goals in regulation or overtime.  Of course, the Jackets' offense didn't produce once again, so it took a shootout to get the 1-0 victory over the Phoenix Coyotes.  

Anisimov and Letestu scored for the Jackets in the shootout as the Coyotes failed to score on their first two attempts.  

Columbus has now had 20 one-goal games on the season (29 games played) and has a record of 11-12-6.  The Jackets will host the Nashville Predators on Tuesday night at 7 PM ET.  If they win they'll be .500 for the first time since January 23rd earlier this season (1-1-1 at the time).    

Lack of Offense Remains a Glaring Weakness for the Blue Jackets

Columbus Blue Jackets goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky only gave up one goal on 38 shots from the Vancouver Canucks in a 2-1 shootout loss in Columbus, Ohio on Tuesday night.

Columbus had it's five-game win streak come to a halt, but were still able to extend their point streak to eight games.

Tuesday night's performance is the perfect example of the Blue Jackets current status as a team.  One that can compete on a nightly basis, but lacks fire power on offense to take themselves over the top.

Why can they compete on a nightly basis?  Simple answer.  The team has played spectacular defense and has a rising star in goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky.

 Now to the lack of offensive fire power.  How about averaging 2.2 goals per game, good for 28th in the NHL.  That's simply not good enough.

I'll be keeping a close eye on the Jackets offensive play in Thursday's matchup with the Chicago Blackhawks at Nationwide Arena at 7 PM ET.  It very well could be telling of the direction this team is heading the rest of the season.

Bobrovsky Stars In Jackets Winning Streak

After a great weekend of sports many fans might be having "A Case of the Mondays".  Monday, however, for Columbus Blue Jackets fans isn't too bad for a change.

Yeah the team's on a five-game winning streak and can consider the possibility of a playoff spot.  In the end, what's most important about this team is that they're finding their true identity.

Starting off with the key figure in the winning streak.  Sergei Bobrovsky.  As mentioned in an earlier post, Bobrovsky entered the game for Steve Mason versus Edmonton last week less than a minute into the second period.  During the Jackets' hot streak, Bobrovsky started the other four games and played in four overtime periods.

Bobrovsky has faced 128 shots and given up four goals over the past five games.  That's one goal per every 25.6 shots.  In the five games (including overtimes) Bobrovsky has  a goals allowed average (goals given up per sixty minutes) of .81.  If none these statistics blow you away, it doesn't hurt to know Bobrovsky had his first career shutout (3-0 versus Detroit on Saturday) and was named the "First Star" of the week.

The second key to the streak has been the Jackets penalty kill.  Columbus was short handed 14 times during their five previous wins and only allowed one power-play goal (not to mention it was a 5-on-3 goal given up at Detroit).  The Blue Jackets now are fifth in the NHL in penalty kill percentage and have a defense that won't be taken lightly for the remainder of the season.

Happy Monday Columbus.  It looks like hockey might just be relevant again in the 614.




 

Jackets Hold Off Edmonton and Improve to Above .500 At Nationwide Arena

Tuesday night was a microcosm of the Jackets' season for its fans, except for the fact that the team won.

The Jackets seemed to on their way to a home victory with an early flurry of shots and a Vinny Prospal goal (team-leading ninth of the season) to put them up 2-1 after trailing early.

With 1:17 remaining in the first period, Mason gave up a game-tying goal scored by Ryan Whitney.  The Jackets found a way to outshoot the Oilers 14-7 in the first period and still be tied at two going into intermission.

Once again, this is a microcosm of the season.  So the beginning of the second period is where it gets worse.  Only 31 seconds into the 2nd, Magnus Paajarvi scored his fourth goal of the season to put Edmonton up 3-2.  In less than two minutes of regulation time, the Jackets found a way to go from leading 2-1 with plenty of confidence, to losing 3-2 with a rather upset home crowd.

Segway.

Enter Sergei Bobrovsky.

After entering the game with 19:29 in the 2nd period, Bobrovsky stopped all 21 shots he faced including a phenomenal save in overtime.    

Columbus defenseman Jack Johnson scored his second goal of the season to tie the game at three with 9:16 remaining in the 2nd period, but the story of the game was Bobrovsky's outstanding relief performance.

The Columbus Blue Jackets won in a shootout over the Edmonton Oilers Tuesday night by a final of 4-3.  The Jackets are over .500 at Nationwide Arena for the first time this season (5-4-3 record at home).

Artem Anisimov and Mark Letestu scored in the shootout while Bobrovsky continued his dominance not allowing an Oiler to get the puck in the net.

Jackets Head Coach Todd Richards did a magnificent job of keeping his team composed after a disappointing turn of events that put the team in a 3-2 hole.    

Columbus has now had eight consecutive one-goal games (five on the road and three at home).  The team is 3-3-2 in that stretch with the only regulation victory coming at Detroit.

For what it's worth, 10 of the Jackets' 16 losses have been by one goal.  With an overtime and a shootout victory in the last two performances, the Jackets may just be turning things around.

Columbus has now won two straight and has a four-game point streak.  The team will look to keep the momentum they've built on Thursday night as they host the Vancouver Canucks (11-6-5) at 7:00 PM ET.   

Parody Gives Basketball Bucks Some Hope

College Athletics is an unpredictable beast.  For some reason, perhaps it’s that whole “student” part of student athlete providing distractions.  College athletes do not always perform consistently from game to game.  This past fall it looked like Oregon would battle Kansas State for the BCS Championship Game. The two teams didn’t perform down the stretch and left the door open for Alabama and Notre Dame.

College basketball is no different in that aspect.  Teams ranked in the top five have been defeated on nineteen occasions by unranked opponents this season.  Yes, 19.  A few weeks ago, Indiana lost on the road at Illinois as the top-ranked team in the country.  Surely, this should have resulted in a fall from the top spot.  Nope, not this season.  Virtually every other top team behind the Hoosiers lost that week.  So much for "earning" the top spot. 

This brings us to the enigma that is the Ohio State men’s basketball team this year.  They’ve put together impressive home wins against Michigan, Michigan State, and Wisconsin.  They have also been hammered in Madison and at Illinois.  You’ve probably heard Ohio State is awful against ranked teams.  They are 2-7 against top-25 opponents (the Badgers were unranked at the time of their home victory). 

That doesn’t really matter though.  Ohio State proved it could hang with Duke at Cameron Indoor. A Duke team with a healthy Ryan Kelly.  The Bucks were a few missed shots away from knocking off Kansas.  They took Michigan to overtime in Ann Arbor and were a botched last-second play away from doing the same to Sparty at the Breslin Center.  

Here’s why their record against quality opponents isn’t a huge cause for concern right now: College basketball is down this year.  Way down.  Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist aren’t leading a Kentucky squad.  Jared Sullinger and Thomas Robinson have moved on.  There isn’t a Steph Curry or Kemba Walker carrying a team (that we know of yet). 

Here is what happened.  Last year’s sophomore class was exceptionally strong, in part because of Barnes, Sullinger and others coming back because the prior year the NBA lockout loomed.  A strong sophomore class was combined with a solid freshmen class, headlined by Anthony Davis.  The quality of teams was simply better last season.  I'm not even sure who Dick Vitale’s “diaper dandies” would be this year other than Mclemore of Kansas, Nerlens Noel (who's hurt), and Stauskas for Michigan (who has tailed off).  Perhaps this is a reflection of a “down” freshmen class or I just haven’t had as much time to watch college basketball (dang it employment!).

This Ohio State team is essentially the same as last year’s group, minus the 1^st round NBA draft pick Sullinger and one of the all time career points leaders in Ohio State history in William Buford.  Those guys were replaced with Amadeo Della Valle, who for the record has the potential to be my all-time favorite Buckeye because of his hair, hustle, sweet stroke, and swag (see Twitter).  No offense to Amadeo, but he’s mostly played during garbage time so Thad is trying the whole addition-by-subtraction approach I guess.

For as bad as Ohio State has been at times this year, they currently hold a top-15 national ranking, have an almost-guaranteed win left on the schedule (Illinois at home), and a chance to make a statement at Indiana.  They should be a 4 or 5 seed come tournament time, but we’ve already seen that every top team has flaws and is beatable.  The first game in the NCAA tournament and possibly even the second won’t be a “high quality” opponent that OSU has struggled with all season.  As long as the Buckeyes don’t go into a tailspin and bring it every night, they’ll be in every game they play because of their stifling defense.

There are question marks, don’t me get wrong.  There are about two “known” quantities on this team.  Deshaun Thomas will put up 18-25 a night and Aaron Craft will play relentless defense and provide great energy…and some rosy red cheeks.  Other than that, I don’t know who is going to show up.  Free throws have been all over the place.  Same goes for 3 pointers.  The defense has even disappeared at times.  Like every college basketball team this year, they are flawed.

The obituary was being written for this team following back-to-back losses (the first such occurrence in 121 games) which led to losses in 3 of 4 that culminated in the beat down by the Badgers.  That was followed up by a no-show near home loss to Northwestern who has SEVEN scholarship players on their roster.  Ohio State can play with anyone in the country…when they’re on.  Fortunately for them, there is not a dominant team in college basketball this year.  This gives them a shooters chance come tournament time.  However, every team is probably thinking the same thing.  Just a few short weeks until we find out which teams are going to weave their way through the mess that is college basketball all the way to the Final Four.

Enjoy the ride.